TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks receiving performance in an upcoming football game, with payouts scaling based on yardage achieved by individual players. Contracts offer varying returns depending on how many receiving yards each player accumulates during the match.
Each market evaluates player receiving yards in the specified game, with payouts determined by a tiered schedule that increases with every 10-yard increment. The payout for Yes contracts follows a cubic scaling formula based on the official receiving yards achieved, capped at $1.00 for 200 or more yards. No contracts receive the difference between $1.00 and the Yes payout. Negative yardage results in a $0.00 payout for Yes contracts. All markets resolve to Yes upon completion, regardless of the yardage outcome, with Kalshi explicitly stating no official affiliation with the governing league.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates insights from individuals actively trading on their beliefs about the game's outcome. It's common to see discrepancies arise due to differing information or interpretations. While sportsbooks may be influenced by public betting patterns, this market represents a more direct expression of informed opinion, though both can be subject to biases and inaccuracies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential total receiving yardage ranges. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the probability that the actual total receiving yards will fall within that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to set prices accurately, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating market movements. The market’s price represents the aggregated expectation of all participants regarding the final receiving yardage total for the Cowboys and Packers.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final total receiving yards for both the Dallas Cowboys and the Green Bay Packers, as officially recorded by the NFL, will determine the outcome. The market will settle to the contract corresponding to the actual total receiving yards achieved during the game. It’s important to note that official NFL statistics are the definitive source for determining the resolution of this market, and any adjustments made by the NFL will be reflected in the final settlement.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to game day. Injury reports for key wide receivers or tight ends on either team would be significant catalysts, as they directly impact expected receiving yardage. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions like heavy rain or strong winds, could also shift expectations. Pre-game news regarding defensive strategies or potential mismatches in coverage could also move the market. Finally, any late-breaking news about quarterback performance or play-calling tendencies could influence traders’ assessments of the likely total receiving yards.