TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks passing yard milestones for both quarterbacks in an upcoming football game, resolving based on whether each player meets or exceeds specific yardage thresholds during the full match, including any overtime periods.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the first half (including overtime), the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the game's kickoff unless the player meets the required passing yards, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers full game passing yards including overtime.
Typically, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a ‘vig’ or commission into their odds, representing their profit margin. This market, driven by the collective intelligence of traders on Kalshi, aims to represent the true probability of different outcomes, though discrepancies can and do occur. These differences can stem from varying information sources, differing risk assessments, or simply the dynamics of supply and demand within each venue. It’s common to see prediction markets reflect public sentiment more accurately than initial sportsbook lines.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different passing yardage ranges. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, with buyers bidding up the price and sellers offering it down. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as game day approaches. The current price reflects the collective forecast of all participants trading on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passing yardage statistics from the Dallas versus Green Bay game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passing yards achieved by both quarterbacks will be used to determine which contracts payout and at what value. The resolution process relies on publicly available data to ensure an objective and transparent outcome for all traders participating in this market.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding quarterback injuries for either the Dallas or Green Bay teams would likely cause substantial movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they indicate strong winds or heavy rain, could also influence expectations for passing yardage totals. Late-breaking reports about key receiver availability or defensive strategies employed by either team are additional catalysts. Even significant shifts in public sentiment, as reflected by analyst predictions or social media discussion, can contribute to price fluctuations in this market.