TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.1b
24H VOL:
$185,665,189
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,983,476,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,833,875,329
407,365
Markets across
40,470
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,365
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:57 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of contracts focuses on predicting the number of passing touchdowns achieved by specific quarterbacks in an upcoming football game. Each contract represents a different threshold of success for the designated player's performance during the match.
All contracts are designated as protected, meaning if a player participates in at least one play during the first half but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half, including overtime, the contract resolves to the fair price prior to the opening kickoff unless the player meets or exceeds the required number of passing touchdowns. If the player participates in any play after the first half, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half participation. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion, and this event considers full game passing touchdowns including overtime.
Generally, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals freely trading contracts, theoretically leading to a more accurate reflection of true probabilities. Often, you’ll find prediction markets move more quickly to incorporate new information than sportsbooks, as traders react in real-time to news and analysis. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the number of passing touchdowns scored. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more people buy contracts for a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice-versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly adjust to new information and reflect the collective intelligence of the traders involved. The current market reflects the aggregated predictions of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passing touchdowns scored in the Dallas versus Green Bay game will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders should monitor official sources for the final game results to understand the outcome of this market and any associated payouts.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding injuries to key quarterbacks or wide receivers on either the Dallas or Green Bay teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions for passing, could also shift the market. Additionally, late-breaking news about defensive strategies or coaching decisions could influence traders' expectations. Finally, general public sentiment and analysis from sports commentators could contribute to price fluctuations in this market.