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Closed: Oct 18, 8:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game between Dallas and Green Bay. It includes scenarios where either team scores first, or neither team scores a touchdown at all during the entire game, including any overtime periods.
The event determines which team scores the first touchdown in the Dallas vs Green Bay Pro Football game scheduled for October 18, 2026, with three possible outcomes: Green Bay scores first, Dallas scores first, or neither team scores a touchdown. All touchdowns—offensive, defensive, or special teams—count toward the outcome, including those scored in overtime. If the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original scheduled time, the market remains open and resolves based on the official result. If the game does not start within 48 hours of its scheduled time, the market resolves to a fair price. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines to balance action, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. If a significant number of people believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the price will move accordingly. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of a continuously updating market. It’s common to see prediction markets offer more accurate probabilities, especially closer to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. Each contract’s price reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market operates with a fee structure, and traders aim to profit by accurately predicting the outcome and capitalizing on price movements. The current price of each contract represents the market’s collective assessment of the likelihood of a specific player scoring the first touchdown.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which team scores the first touchdown in the Dallas versus Green Bay game. Official game statistics and play-by-play data will be used to determine the winning outcome. The platform will verify the result against widely available and trusted sources to ensure accuracy. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding injuries to key offensive players on either the Dallas or Green Bay teams would likely cause substantial price shifts. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor a passing or running game, could also impact the market. Furthermore, pre-game analysis from reputable sports analysts and any late-breaking news about team strategies or player matchups could all contribute to movement. Unexpected developments during warm-ups or even the opening kickoff could also trigger rapid adjustments in the prices of contracts within this market.