TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets evaluates individual player and team defensive performances in an upcoming football game, focusing on whether specified participants achieve certain fantasy point thresholds using a standardized scoring system.
All markets resolve based on Sleeper’s default full-PPR fantasy scoring system applied to the full game (including overtime) between Dallas and Green Bay scheduled for October 18, 2026. Each market specifies a player or team (including both offenses and defenses) and a numeric threshold; the market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified entity exceeds its threshold. Players who do not participate or lack a published fantasy-point value are treated as scoring zero. The official Sleeper fantasy-point total at contract expiration is used without post-expiration adjustments or rounding. Scoring includes passing/rushing/receiving yards and touchdowns, kicking points, defensive/special teams contributions (such as sacks, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns), and team defensive points based on opponent scoring ranges. All trademarks belong to their respective owners, and the platform is unrelated to the governing league.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house bias or initial line setting. Sportsbooks may also adjust their odds more slowly to changes in public perception than this market, where prices move with each trade. While sportsbooks focus on implied probabilities based on their models, this market represents what traders are willing to bet on, providing a distinct view of potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different fantasy point outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches, offering a forward-looking assessment of player performance.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official fantasy point totals for the players involved are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final prices will reflect the accuracy of the collective predictions made by traders on Kalshi. Following resolution, any outstanding contracts will be settled based on whether the actual outcome matched the contract's prediction, resulting in a payout or loss for traders. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or updated weather forecasts could significantly impact expectations for player performance. Unexpected developments in player matchups or coaching strategies could also shift the market. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed traders or significant shifts in public sentiment could drive price changes. Monitoring these signals closely can provide insight into potential market movements leading up to the Oct 19, 2026 resolution of this market.