TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Dallas or Green Bay during the second quarter of their scheduled football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
All markets resolve based solely on the point differential between Dallas and Green Bay at the end of the second quarter of the game scheduled for October 18, 2026. For markets where Green Bay must win by a specified margin, the resolution depends on whether Green Bay's score exceeds Dallas's score by more than the stated points at the end of the second quarter. Conversely, for markets where Dallas must win by a specified margin, resolution hinges on Dallas's score surpassing Green Bay's by more than the stated points at that same interval. Only points scored during the second quarter count toward determining the outcome; points from any other quarter are irrelevant. The markets cover a range of margins from over 1.5 points up to over 10.5 points for each team, allowing participants to bet on varying degrees of dominance in that specific quarter.
Often, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market represents the collective predictions of many individuals. If a significant discrepancy exists, it may indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the probability of a particular outcome. It’s common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts, offering a unique perspective on the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the 2nd quarter spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that spread occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders adjust their bids and asks based on their own analysis, news, and expectations, driving the price toward a consensus view. This dynamic process ensures the market price reflects the most up-to-date information available to participants.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final 2nd quarter spread of the Dallas versus Green Bay game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official game statistics as reported by a trusted sports data provider. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts align with the actual result. The market’s price leading up to resolution will reflect the evolving expectations of traders as the game approaches and information becomes available.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before the game concludes. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Dallas or Green Bay teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favorable to one team’s style of play, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, any late-breaking news about team strategy or coaching decisions could shift expectations and cause the price to fluctuate. Public sentiment and expert analysis can also contribute to price movements in this market.