TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 11:49 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either Dallas or Green Bay in the second half of their football game. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified Dallas vs Green Bay Pro Football game. Each market has a unique threshold: if Green Bay wins by more than a specified number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), the corresponding 'Green Bay wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Dallas wins by more than a specified number of points (ranging from 2.5 to 10.5), the corresponding 'Dallas wins by over X points' market resolves to Yes. Only points scored during the second half and any overtime periods count toward these thresholds. The markets are independent, meaning each threshold must be evaluated separately, and the outcome of one does not affect the others. Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect the 'wisdom of the crowd,' potentially differing from those initially set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market represents the aggregated predictions of many individual traders. It’s common to see this market odds move in response to news or information that isn’t immediately factored into sportsbook lines, or to see discrepancies emerge as the event draws nearer and more information becomes available. This can offer a different perspective on the likely outcome than traditional betting venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust its predictions accordingly, making it a responsive indicator of expectations for the Dallas versus Green Bay second-half spread.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the final point spread of the second half of the Dallas versus Green Bay game will be used to determine whether Green Bay wins by over 7.5 points, or if Dallas covers the spread. The resolution will be based on official game statistics and results as reported by a trusted sports data source, ensuring an objective and verifiable outcome for all traders in this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Dallas or Green Bay teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they favor one team’s playing style, could also move the market. Furthermore, late-breaking news about coaching decisions or team strategies might prompt traders to reassess their predictions. Even public sentiment, as reflected in social media or expert analysis, can contribute to fluctuations in this market as the game approaches.