TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 10:21 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting which player or unit will score the first touchdown for Dallas in their upcoming game against Green Bay. Each market corresponds to a specific player or the Dallas defense, with outcomes determined by game performance.
Each market resolves based on whether the specified player or unit scores the first touchdown for Dallas in the game. If the designated player is active but does not take any snaps, the market settles at the fair market price before kickoff. Once a player takes at least one snap, the market outcome depends solely on whether they score the first Dallas touchdown. If no Dallas touchdowns are scored during the game, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all individual player markets resolve to No. These rules apply uniformly across all player-specific and defensive unit markets, ensuring consistent resolution criteria for each participant.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each outcome. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the potential for each player to score the first touchdown. The market's efficiency comes from the incentive for traders to accurately assess probabilities and profit from discrepancies.
This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which Dallas player officially scores the first touchdown of the game, as recorded by official game statistics. The official game log will serve as the determining factor, and any disputes will be handled according to Kalshi’s standard procedures. It’s important to note that the resolution process focuses solely on the documented game results, and any subjective interpretations are avoided.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any news regarding injuries to key Dallas offensive players, particularly wide receivers or running backs, would likely cause shifts in probabilities. Changes in weather conditions, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence the expected game plan and affect which player is favored to score first. Finally, late-breaking news about defensive matchups or coaching strategies could lead to traders reassessing their positions, resulting in price movements within this market.