TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 2:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either the Dallas Cowboys or the Houston Texans specifically within the second quarter of their scheduled game on October 4, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different point differential threshold that determines the outcome.
These markets resolve based on the point differential between the Dallas Cowboys and the Houston Texans exclusively during the second quarter of their game scheduled for October 4, 2026. Each market has a specific threshold: for Houston to win by more than 10.5, 7.5, 6.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, or for Dallas to win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 6.5, 7.5, or 10.5 points during that quarter. Only points scored in the second quarter count toward resolving these markets. If the game is postponed or canceled without completing the second quarter, all markets are void.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbook odds are typically set by a relatively small number of experts, while this market incorporates insights from many participants. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can sometimes identify information not fully priced into sportsbook lines. However, both aim to accurately forecast the probability of an event, and comparing them can be a useful exercise for informed decision-making.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Cowboys-Texans 2nd quarter. The price of each contract reflects the probability that the actual spread will fall in that range. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus view. The current price indicates what traders believe is the fair value of the outcome, based on available information and their own analysis. The market's depth, shown by the bid-ask spread, also provides insight into the confidence level surrounding different potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the 2nd quarter of the Cowboys-Texans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the relevant sporting authority. The contracts will then pay out based on whether the actual spread fell within the range represented by the purchased contracts. Traders who correctly predicted the spread will receive a payout, while those who predicted incorrectly will forfeit their stake.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 4, 2026. News regarding key player injuries for either the Cowboys or the Texans would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest conditions favoring one team's style of play, could also move the market. Unexpected news about coaching strategies or team morale might also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could signal shifts in sentiment and lead to price adjustments in this market.