TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 4, 4:18 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets focuses on predicting the margin of victory for either the Dallas Cowboys or Houston Texans in the second half of their scheduled football game. Outcomes are determined solely by points scored after halftime, including any overtime periods.
These markets resolve based on the point differential in the second half (including overtime) of the specified Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans game. Each market corresponds to a specific point threshold, with outcomes resolving to 'Yes' if the winning team exceeds that threshold by more than the stated margin. For Houston markets, resolution occurs when Houston wins by more than the specified points; for Dallas markets, resolution occurs when Dallas wins by more than the specified points. Only points scored from the start of the second half through the end of regulation and any overtime periods count toward these determinations. The markets collectively span a range of margins from 2.5 to 10.5 points for each team, allowing for varied predictions of competitive balance in the latter portion of the game.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook lines due to the influence of public opinion and information. Sportsbooks initially set lines based on their own analysis, but these can shift as betting action occurs. This market, however, allows anyone to participate and express their view, potentially leading to odds that more accurately reflect the true probability of an event. It’s common to see differences emerge as new information becomes available, and the prediction market adjusts more dynamically to changing circumstances than traditional sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the Cowboys-Texans second half spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that specific spread occurring. As more traders buy contracts indicating a particular outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective intelligence of all participants, and the exchange facilitates these trades, ensuring a transparent and liquid marketplace for predicting the game's result. The current price reflects the aggregated expectations of all traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final second half spread of the Cowboys-Texans game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the game’s governing body. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will not. The platform will verify the outcome against established sources to ensure accuracy and fairness for all participants in this market.
Several factors could influence the Cowboys-Texans second half spread market. Any news regarding key player injuries on either team would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Unexpected coaching decisions or strategic adjustments announced before the game could also shift market sentiment. Furthermore, large volume trading activity on Kalshi itself can create momentum and influence the price, as traders react to each other's actions and new information as it becomes available.