TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 3:46 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various margin-based outcomes for an upcoming professional soccer match between Daejeon Citizen and Gwangju in the Korea K League 1. The focus is on determining whether either team secures a decisive victory by exceeding specific goal differentials. Results are judged solely based on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event encompasses four distinct outcome scenarios for the Daejeon Citizen vs Gwangju professional soccer match scheduled for October 18, 2026, all evaluated after 90 minutes plus stoppage time and excluding extra time or penalties. The first scenario resolves to Yes if Daejeon Citizen wins by more than 2.5 goals, effectively requiring at least a 3-goal margin of victory. The second scenario resolves to Yes if Daejeon Citizen wins by more than 1.5 goals, meaning any victory by 2 or more goals. Conversely, the third scenario resolves to Yes if Gwangju wins by more than 1.5 goals, again requiring a 2-goal or greater margin in their favor. The final scenario resolves to Yes if Gwangju wins by more than 2.5 goals, demanding at least a 3-goal margin of victory for Gwangju. Each rule operates independently, and the markets are explicitly unaffiliated with the governing league, with all trademarks and brand names belonging to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than implied by sportsbook odds, the price on Kalshi will move accordingly. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before a substantial amount of volume is traded, as the market attempts to find an efficient price.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official final score of the Daejeon Citizen versus Gwangju match, specifically the goal difference. The platform will then determine which contracts pay out based on whether the actual spread matches the contract’s prediction. Traders holding winning contracts will receive a payout, while those holding losing contracts will forfeit their investment.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Daejeon Citizen or Gwangju would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a recent match, could also shift market sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions on match day, or even pre-match analysis from respected football commentators, could also contribute to price fluctuations as traders adjust their predictions.