TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Cyprus
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 15, 2026
Time left: 12d:18h:51m
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This group forecasts the outcome of a UEFA Nations League soccer match between Cyprus and Montenegro scheduled for November 15, 2026. Markets ask whether Cyprus will win, Montenegro will win, or the game will end in a draw. Resolution depends on the official result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Cyprus and Montenegro, originally scheduled for Sunday, November 15, 2026 at 9:00 AM ET (as of creation of the first market related to the event):
The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Cyprus vs Montenegro UEFA Nations League match scheduled for November 15, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. A 'Yes' outcome for Cyprus or Montenegro occurs only if that team secures a win within regulation time. If the match concludes in a tie at the end of regulation, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the game be canceled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve at a fair price as determined per the platform's guidelines. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the UEFA or the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks due to the differing incentives and information sources. Sportsbooks set odds to maximize profit, factoring in a margin for themselves, while prediction markets are driven by participants who aim to accurately forecast the outcome. This market, for example, reflects the collective intelligence of forecasters, potentially incorporating information not readily available to sportsbook oddsmakers. Consequently, you may find that the implied probability of an event in this market diverges from sportsbook offerings, offering a valuable comparative data point for informed decision-making.
Prices for this market on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and information advantages, leading to differing opinions on the likely outcome. Trading fees, liquidity, and the specific market-making strategies employed on each platform also contribute to price discrepancies. Furthermore, differing levels of volume on Polymarket versus Kalshi can amplify these differences, as smaller order imbalances have a larger impact on less liquid markets. These factors combine to create potentially different price signals.
This market resolves around Nov 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Cyprus vs. Montenegro match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The platform will verify the result against publicly available information to determine the winning outcome. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on their predictions in this market.
Several signals could significantly impact this market before it resolves around Nov 15, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, team form, or changes in coaching staff for either Cyprus or Montenegro would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected results in other qualifying matches, or broader shifts in public perception of the teams' capabilities, could also influence trading activity. Major geopolitical events or unforeseen circumstances affecting travel or the ability to host the match could also move the market. Ultimately, any information that alters the perceived probability of either team winning will likely be reflected in the market prices.