TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 1:56 PM EST
Kalshi
This event focuses on the margin of victory in the same Cyprus vs Latvia soccer match. Different markets allow betting on whether Cyprus wins by a certain margin, or if Latvia wins by a specific margin. The result is determined solely by the goal difference after regular time, with no consideration for extra time or penalties.
These markets resolve based on the winning margin in the Cyprus vs Latvia UEFA Nations League match scheduled for October 5, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Two pairs of markets exist: one pair for Cyprus winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals, and another pair for Latvia winning by more than 1.5 or 2.5 goals. If the winning team meets or exceeds the specified margin, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Extra time and penalty kicks do not factor into the calculation. As with all markets, Kalshi emphasizes it is not officially connected to the governing league, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at traditional sportsbooks. While sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, biases, or simply variations in how each assesses the probability of a particular result. It's common to see this market move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available or public sentiment shifts.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the final spread. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders can take either the 'buy' (yes) or 'sell' (no) side of the spread, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. This creates a transparent and efficient mechanism for aggregating information and forecasting the outcome of the Cyprus versus Latvia game.
This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Cyprus versus Latvia game, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. The resolution will reflect the actual point difference between the final scores of both teams, and contracts will be settled based on whether the actual spread falls within the range defined by the market’s contracts.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 5, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team form, coaching decisions, or even weather forecasts could also shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about player availability or tactical changes could also cause the market to react. Furthermore, large volume trades on Kalshi could indicate informed activity and potentially trigger further price movements.