TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Nov 1, 6:33 PM EST
Kalshi
This market focuses on predicting the outcome of a professional soccer match between Cuiaba and Sao Bernardo, specifically centered around the margin of victory for either team. It reflects how analysts and fans might assess the potential performance gap between the two teams in a competitive league setting. The resolution depends entirely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra periods or penalty shootouts.
The event resolves based on the margin of victory in the Cuiaba vs Sao Bernardo professional Brasileiro Serie B soccer match scheduled for November 1, 2026. If Cuiaba wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals, the relevant market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Sao Bernardo wins by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. All resolutions are determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty kicks. The markets are independent of any official league affiliations, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which are set by professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks may incorporate factors like public betting percentages and risk management into their lines, while this market relies on individuals forecasting the outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, analytical approaches, or simply variations in opinion. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines, especially as new information becomes available leading up to the event.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s probability assessment of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as traders react to news, analysis, and each other's actions, creating a real-time estimate of the event's likelihood. This differs from fixed-odds betting, offering a more fluid and responsive pricing mechanism.
This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Cuiaba vs Sao Bernardo match – specifically, the spread – will be used to determine the winning contracts. The resolution will be based on the officially recorded result of the game, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will be paid out according to the market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Nov 2, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could significantly shift trader sentiment. Unexpected weather conditions impacting gameplay are also potential catalysts. Furthermore, the performance of both teams in their preceding matches, and any updated analyses from sports commentators, will likely be factored into traders’ decisions. Major shifts in public opinion, even without concrete news, can also contribute to market movement.