TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 6:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the potential margin of victory in an upcoming soccer match between Cuiaba and Ponte Preta. It focuses on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent, with different thresholds defining various outcomes. The event captures the competitive balance and expected performance of both teams over the course of the match.
The event determines whether Cuiaba or Ponte Preta wins the specified professional Brasileiro Serie B soccer match by a margin exceeding either 1.5 or 2.5 goals. If Cuiaba wins by more than 2.5 goals, or by more than 1.5 goals (but not exceeding 2.5), the relevant market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Ponte Preta wins by more than 1.5 goals, or by more than 2.5 goals, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. All outcomes are evaluated after 90 minutes plus any stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. The resolution depends solely on the goal differential, with no consideration for other match factors. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at sportsbooks, reflecting the 'wisdom of the crowd' versus the opinions of professional oddsmakers. Sportsbooks set initial lines to balance action, while this market allows anyone to express their belief about the outcome, potentially leading to more accurate probabilities. If a significant discrepancy exists, it may indicate that the crowd believes information isn't fully priced into the sportsbook lines. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities and can be influenced by various factors, including news and public perception.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes of the Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta match spread. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the event's likelihood. Buying a contract is equivalent to making a bet that the outcome will happen, while selling is betting against it.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final result of the Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official spread determined by the governing body of the league, and the market will settle to 100 for the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts on the correct spread will receive 100 per contract, while those holding contracts on the losing spread will receive 0. The final score and spread will be the determining factor.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 4, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Cuiaba or Ponte Preta would likely cause movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the match schedule or venue could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity – a large influx of buy or sell orders – can shift the price, reflecting a change in market expectations regarding the Cuiaba vs Ponte Preta match.