TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 7:32 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of Cuiaba and Avai in an upcoming Brasileiro Serie B soccer match. It focuses on the margin of victory for either team, with different thresholds defining various outcomes. The result depends solely on the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates multiple possible outcomes based on the goal differential in the Cuiaba vs Avai Brasileiro Serie B soccer match scheduled for October 11, 2026. Four distinct primary rules define different winning margins: Cuiaba winning by more than 2.5 goals, Cuiaba winning by more than 1.5 goals, Avai winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Avai winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are determined exclusively by the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalty phases. The event explicitly states that Kalshi, the platform hosting this market, holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all associated trademarks remain property of their respective owners. The structure allows participants to speculate on varying degrees of victory for either team, with each rule representing a separate condition for market resolution.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on statistical models and their own risk assessment, while this market incorporates a wider range of information and perspectives. It's common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges or public sentiment shifts. Comparing this market to sportsbook odds can reveal where the crowd believes there’s value or mispricing in the traditional betting landscape.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome of the Cuiaba vs Avai match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price converges toward a consensus view. The current price indicates what traders, as a group, believe is the likelihood of the spread being as indicated.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Cuiaba vs Avai match. The platform will then verify the result against established sports data sources to determine which contracts will pay out. Traders holding contracts on the correct outcome will receive a payout based on the final market price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 12, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or weather conditions impacting the match could all cause shifts in trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team strategies or coaching changes could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity from informed traders or large volume spikes could indicate new information or a change in expectations regarding the Cuiaba vs Avai match.