TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
$245,801,863
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2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
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4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 5, 6:57 PM EST
Kalshi
Several markets will determine whether Cuba or Saint Kitts & Nevis achieves a decisive victory margin in their upcoming match, focusing exclusively on the goal differential after regular time.
These markets resolve based on the goal differential between Cuba and Saint Kitts & Nevis in their CONCACAF Nations League match on October 5, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with extra time and penalties excluded. Two sets of thresholds apply: Cuba must win by more than 2.5 goals or more than 1.5 goals for the first two markets to resolve Yes, while Saint Kitts & Nevis must win by more than 1.5 goals or more than 2.5 goals for the last two markets to resolve Yes. If the outcome does not meet any specified margin condition, all relevant markets resolve to No. As with all event rules, the platform expressly disclaims any official connection to CONCACAF, and all associated trademarks remain owned by their respective entities.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which may be influenced by house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the probability of a specific outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously betting on both platforms. However, it’s important to remember that both types of odds represent probabilities as perceived by different groups, and neither is guaranteed to be perfectly accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust dynamically, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. The spread represents the difference between the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ contract prices, indicating the perceived competitiveness of the match. The market’s depth, shown by the order book, reveals how much volume is available at different price points.
This market resolves around Oct 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the Cuba vs Saint Kitts & Nevis match, as officially recorded by sporting authorities. The market will determine which outcome – a win for Cuba or Saint Kitts & Nevis – is the prevailing result. Traders who correctly predicted the outcome will be paid out according to the final market prices at resolution. It’s important to monitor the event closely as the resolution date approaches to understand any potential factors that could influence the final result.
Several signals could influence this market before it resolves. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in player lineups, or unexpected weather conditions could shift the perceived probabilities. Significant shifts in public opinion, reflected in polls or expert analysis, might also impact trading activity. Furthermore, performance in preceding matches or changes in coaching strategies could influence traders' assessments. Unexpected political developments or travel disruptions affecting either team could also play a role. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential movements in the market leading up to Oct 6, 2026.