TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 5:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of two teams in an esports match, focusing on how many times their players eliminate opponents' characters. The outcome depends on whether either team achieves a specific number of eliminations within the first game of a competitive League of Legends match. The result is determined by official game statistics and adheres to tournament rules regarding match changes.
The event resolves based on whether CTBC Flying Oyster records at least 11 champion kills or Karmine Corp records at least 17 champion kills in Game 1 of the specified League of Legends match. If the match is postponed beyond 48 hours, cancelled, forfeited, shortened, or replayed, the market resolves using the last fair price or officially recorded statistics at the time of the disruption, provided they are not voided. Any voided or unofficial statistics are excluded from resolution calculations. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Comparing prediction market odds to those offered by sportsbooks can reveal interesting insights into public perception versus informed trader opinion. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on team rankings and historical performance, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of individuals incentivized to make accurate predictions. Discrepancies may arise due to differing levels of expertise or access to information, or simply because the prediction market attracts a more sophisticated betting pool. It's common to see odds converge as the event approaches, but significant differences can present potential value for informed bettors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total kills in Game 1. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. As more traders believe CTBC Flying Oyster will achieve 11+ champion kills, for example, the price of that contract will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the most up-to-date information and collective intelligence of the traders participating.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final champion kill counts for both CTBC Flying Oyster and Karmine Corp in Game 1 are verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will settle based on the official game statistics published by the League of Legends event organizers. The total number of champion kills achieved by each team will be the determining factor for payout, aligning with the market’s defined conditions. No further information is available regarding the resolution process.
Several factors could influence the trading activity in this market before resolution. Unexpected news regarding player health or team composition for either CTBC Flying Oyster or Karmine Corp could significantly shift expectations. In-game performance during other matches leading up to Game 1 might also provide insights into team form and strategy. Major strategic announcements or shifts in the meta-game within League of Legends could also impact perceived team strengths. Any information that alters the perceived probability of either team reaching a specific kill count has the potential to move this market.