TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$245,601,049
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,405,322
408,349
Markets across
39,583
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,443
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 5:03 PM EST
Kalshi
In a high-stakes League of Legends match, analysts and fans will watch closely to see how many times each team secures control over the dragon, a powerful in-game creature that provides significant advantages. The outcome depends on the team's performance in securing these kills during the first game of the match.
The markets resolve based on whether CTBC Flying Oyster or Karmine Corp achieves a specified number of dragon kills (ranging from 1 to 4+) in Game 1 of their Worlds 2026 match scheduled for October 29, 2026, at 7:00 PM EDT. If the match or game is postponed beyond 48 hours of its scheduled start time, cancelled, or forfeited before any relevant statistics are recorded, all markets resolve to the last fair price. If play begins and is later forfeited, markets resolve based on officially recorded statistics up to that point unless voided by officials. For shortened or replayed games, resolution relies on officially published statistics from completed segments; if none exist, markets resolve to the last fair price. All outcomes depend solely on officially counted statistics from the match.
Comparing prediction market odds to sportsbook odds reveals how public sentiment differs from professional analysis. Sportsbooks set lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders. If prediction market odds significantly diverge from sportsbook lines, it could indicate that traders possess information or insights not yet incorporated into the sportsbook’s assessment. Discrepancies can also arise from differing risk appetites and market dynamics between the two venues, potentially offering arbitrage opportunities for informed traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust dynamically, creating a real-time assessment of the event’s likelihood. This mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market, constantly updating to reflect the latest insights and expectations regarding the Dragon Kills in Game 1.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official game statistics for Dragon Kills in Game 1 between CTBC Flying Oyster and Karmine Corp. The number of dragons killed by each team will be verified against official League of Legends game data to determine the winning outcome. This ensures a transparent and objective resolution process for all traders participating in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any news regarding player form, team strategies, or unexpected roster changes for either CTBC Flying Oyster or Karmine Corp could influence trader sentiment. In-game performance during other matches leading up to the event, or even pre-game analysis from prominent League of Legends analysts, could also shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about the game itself, such as patch updates or rule changes, could also impact the perceived probabilities and cause price fluctuations in this market.