TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$238,896,186
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,985,204,718
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,897,934,485
408,127
Markets across
39,552
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,429
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 8:18 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between CSD Macara and CSD Independiente del Valle, scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "CSD Macara" if CSD Macara are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "CSD Independiente del Valle" if CSD Independiente del Valle are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between CSD Macara and CSD Independiente del Valle, scheduled for October 17, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "CSD Macara" if CSD Macara are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "CSD Independiente del Valle" if CSD Independiente del Valle are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the probability of each outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that prediction market traders possess information or insights not yet fully priced into the sportsbook odds. It’s important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each team scoring first. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand. As more people believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of shares representing that outcome increases, and vice versa. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the aggregated predictions of all traders on the platform, providing a real-time assessment of the perceived probability of each team taking the early lead.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on which team scores the first goal in the Macara vs. Independiente del Valle match. The official match result, as reported by a recognized sports data provider, will determine the winning outcome. Any disputes regarding the outcome will be resolved based on the official match records and generally accepted rules of soccer.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Late-breaking news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Macara or Independiente del Valle would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about starting lineups, or even pre-match analysis from respected soccer commentators, could all contribute to shifts in the market price as traders adjust their predictions based on new information.