TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 7, 10:29 PM EST
Kalshi
This market on Kalshi predicts whether over 1.5 goals will be scored in the Cruzeiro versus Sao Paulo professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer game. Currently, the probability of over 1.5 goals being scored is 99.0%. The market will resolve based on the total goals scored in 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as reported by official match data. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the market will resolve following the completion of the game originally scheduled for October 7, 2026, with final settlement expected by the resolution date of October 8, 2026.
The event resolves based on the total number of goals scored during the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo professional Brasileiro Serie A soccer match scheduled for October 7, 2026. The resolution considers only goals scored within the 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time added by the referee; goals scored during extra time or penalty shootouts are excluded. Multiple markets exist, each corresponding to a different threshold of total goals (0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, and 5.5). For each market, if the actual number of goals exceeds the specified threshold, that market resolves to 'Yes'; otherwise, it resolves to 'No'. All markets are independent, and each has its own resolution criteria based solely on the total goals scored in the match as defined. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their models and risk assessment, while this market allows anyone to trade on their belief about the likely outcome. If a significant discrepancy exists, arbitrage opportunities may arise, where traders can profit by simultaneously buying and selling contracts on Kalshi and at a sportsbook. It’s common to see convergence as the event approaches.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different total goal outcomes in the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo match. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective expectation. The market depth indicates how many contracts are available at different price points, providing insights into potential price movements.
This market resolves around Oct 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of total goals scored in the Cruzeiro vs Sao Paulo match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league or governing body responsible for the match. The market will then pay out to contract holders based on whether their predicted outcome matches the actual total goals scored. Traders should monitor official sources for the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either Cruzeiro or Sao Paulo would likely cause significant movement. Changes in weather conditions, particularly if they are expected to impact the style of play, could also shift expectations. Late-breaking team news, tactical announcements from the managers, or even public sentiment shifts based on pre-match analysis could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market before Oct 8, 2026.