TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 17, 4:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks various potential score margins in an upcoming soccer match between Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Zacatecas. It focuses on different thresholds by which either team could win the game, emphasizing the magnitude of victory rather than just the win itself. The outcomes are determined based on the final score after regular time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event encompasses four distinct scoring scenarios for the Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Zacatecas professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer match scheduled for October 17, 2026. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration given to extra time or penalty phases. The first scenario resolves to Yes if Cruz Azul Hidalgo wins by more than 2.5 goals, effectively requiring at least a 3-goal margin of victory. The second scenario resolves to Yes if Cruz Azul Hidalgo secures a win by more than 1.5 goals, meaning any victory by 2 or more goals. Conversely, the third scenario resolves to Yes if Zacatecas achieves a victory margin exceeding 1.5 goals, also requiring at least a 2-goal difference in their favor. The final scenario resolves to Yes if Zacatecas wins by more than 2.5 goals, demanding a minimum 3-goal advantage. Each rule operates independently, and the market resolves based on which specific condition is met by the final score. Kalshi explicitly states it holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ perspective, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own modeling and need to account for profit margins, while this market relies on individuals freely trading based on their beliefs. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate differing levels of confidence in a particular outcome or access to unique information. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities and are subject to change.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing potential outcomes. The price of a contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the latest information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The spread reflects the difference in probabilities assigned to each team winning, and the price movements indicate how traders are reacting to news, analysis, and other relevant factors influencing the event.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the actual point difference between Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Zacatecas as reported by official sources. The market will settle based on the official result, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout based on the contract's price at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or coaching decisions could significantly shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions or even pre-game analysis from sports commentators could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, large volume trades from informed participants could cause noticeable price movements. Monitoring these signals and staying updated on the latest information is crucial for understanding potential shifts in this market before Oct 18, 2026.