TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 7:44 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Cruz Azul Hidalgo and Tlaxcala, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals the winning team scores beyond their opponent within the standard match duration. Different thresholds define various outcomes based on the size of the winning margin.
The event resolves based on the goal differential of the Cruz Azul Hidalgo vs Tlaxcala professional Liga de Expansion MX soccer match scheduled for October 31, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. Four distinct outcomes are defined by specific goal-margin thresholds: Cruz Azul Hidalgo winning by more than 2.5 goals, Cruz Azul Hidalgo winning by more than 1.5 goals, Tlaxcala winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Tlaxcala winning by more than 2.5 goals. The market resolves to 'Yes' for the applicable outcome if the corresponding condition is met; otherwise, it resolves to 'No.' The rules clarify that Kalshi holds no official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the wisdom of the crowd effect. Sportsbooks set lines based on their internal models and risk assessment, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook line is inaccurate, they can drive the price on Kalshi in a different direction. This can lead to opportunities for arbitrage or simply a more accurate reflection of the true probability of an outcome, compared to initial sportsbook offerings. It's important to compare both to inform your decisions.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders submit buy and sell orders for contracts representing the spread. The current price reflects the highest buy order and the lowest sell order, constantly updating as traders interact with the market. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This means the price isn't fixed but dynamically adjusts based on supply and demand, offering a real-time assessment of expectations for the Cruz Azul vs Tlaxcala match. The more volume traded, the more confident you can be in the price reflecting informed opinion.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final spread result of the Cruz Azul vs Tlaxcala match, as officially recorded. Traders who correctly predicted whether the spread would be covered will receive a payout based on the contract price at resolution. It’s important to monitor news sources and official match results as the resolution date approaches to understand how the outcome is being determined.
Several signals could influence this market before Nov 1, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either team, changes in coaching strategies, or even weather conditions impacting the match could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about team lineups or significant shifts in public perception of each team's chances will likely cause price fluctuations. Monitoring sports news and social media for updates related to the Cruz Azul vs Tlaxcala match is crucial for understanding potential market movements.