TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$234,875,025
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,205,330,693
501,301
Markets across
13,585
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,825
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Crude Oil (CL) Up or Down on February 13?
Volume:
$111,630
Outcome
Chance %
Price
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
Trade
Description
This event group tracks whether crude oil (WTI) settles higher or lower on February 13, 2026 compared to the previous trading day. Polymarket offers a directional Up/Down binary, while Kalshi offers multiple price-range buckets that collectively cover all possible outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Polymarket resolves on directional price change (Up/Down vs prior day), while Kalshi resolves on absolute price-range buckets on Feb 13 only. These measure different outcomes and require different data inputs.Hero Tip:
Do not assume these markets will move together. Polymarket requires tracking the Feb 12 settlement price and active month contract; Kalshi requires only the Feb 13 front-month settlement price. A large move up could resolve Up on Polymarket but land in a low-probability bucket on Kalshi if the prior day was already high.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Directional comparison market. Resolves Up if Feb 13 CME settlement price (active month) exceeds Feb 12 settlement price (same contract month); Down if lower. Uses official CME settlement price only, published by 11:59 PM ET next day. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.'
- Kalshi: Absolute price-range market. Resolves Yes if front-month WTI settle price on Feb 13 falls into any of 19 predefined buckets spanning <$51 to >$67.99 (in $1 increments). No prior-day comparison; no tie or no-settlement fallback mentioned. Key Quote: 'If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on February 13, 2026 is between [X] and [Y], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
Follow the signals, not the noise
Get insights on market conviction, notable shifts, and what the data is quietly signaling.
PredictionHero © 2026 · v0.13.0PredictionHero provides aggregated market data and informational signals only. Nothing on this site constitutes financial, legal, or investment advice. Markets are volatile and speculative. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult qualified professionals before making decisions involving risk.