TOTAL VOLUME:
$155.1b
24H VOL:
$337,672,170
24H TRANSACTIONS:
3,002,125,488
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,014,360,784
421,272
Markets across
40,138
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,437
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 6, 6:46 PM EST
Polymarket
This event group concerns the halftime result of a soccer match between Croatia and Spain. Markets exist to predict whether Croatia, Spain, or a draw will be the leading outcome at the midpoint of the game, including stoppage time.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Croatia and Spain, scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
In the upcoming UEFA Nations League game between Croatia and Spain, scheduled for October 6, 2026 at 2:45 PM ET: This event contains halftime result markets for home, draw, and away outcomes within the first 45 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time.
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a different kind of wisdom than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of many independent traders. This can lead to more accurate probabilities, especially when there's significant public interest and volume. However, sportsbooks may react faster to breaking news, such as injuries, while this market relies on traders incorporating that information. Both offer valuable insights, but prediction markets can sometimes offer a more collective intelligence view.
Prices on Polymarket and Predict can differ due to variations in trader composition, liquidity, and perceived information advantages. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying risk appetites and analytical approaches, leading to distinct price discovery processes. For example, Polymarket currently favors Croatia leading at halftime at an implied probability, while Predict leans toward Spain leading at halftime. These discrepancies can also arise from differing trading fees or platform-specific rules influencing market dynamics. The volume of trading on each platform also plays a role, with higher volume generally indicating greater price stability and accuracy.