TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Croatia vs. Iceland
polymarket
kalshi

What is the result of Croatia vs. Iceland?

Volume:
$1,872,252

Iceland

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 9, 2026

Closed: Oct 9, 2:44 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Iceland

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$130,310
N/A
N/A
$80,163
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Iceland

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$42,236
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Croatia

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,170,259
N/A
N/A
$762,842
Settled
No
polymarket

Croatia

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$249,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Tie

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$253,606
N/A
N/A
$181,920
Settled
No
polymarket

Draw (Croatia vs. Iceland)

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the Croatia vs. Iceland FIFA Women’s World Cup Qualifier match scheduled for October 9, 2026, specifically whether Iceland will win the game within 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, the consensus probability of Iceland winning is 99.5%. This prediction aggregates data from Polymarket and Kalshi, and will resolve based on the official result of the match as determined by FIFA. Keep an eye on the game itself on October 9, 2026, as the final whistle will determine the outcome of this market.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Cancellation handling differs between platforms, with Polymarket resolving canceled games to 'No' (win/loss) or 'Yes' (draw), while Kalshi does not specify a resolution path for cancellations.Hero tip: Monitor for potential cancellation of the match. If canceled, Polymarket markets will resolve, while Kalshi markets may remain open, creating a potential trading opportunity.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Markets resolve to 'Yes' if Croatia/Iceland wins or the game ends in a draw. If the game is canceled entirely, the win/loss markets resolve to 'No', and the draw market resolves to 'Yes'. Resolution is based on official statistics, with fallback sources (Flashscore, Sofascore).
  • Kalshi: Markets resolve to 'Yes' if Croatia/Iceland wins or the game ends in a draw. The logic does not specify resolution if the game is canceled, implying the market remains open until the game is completed. Resolution is based on official statistics.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This event is for the upcoming UEFA Women's World Cup Qualification game, scheduled for Friday, October 9, 2026 between Croatia and Iceland.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the full-time result of the Croatia vs Iceland women's FIFA World Cup qualifier scheduled for October 9, 2026, determined after 90 minutes of regular play plus any stoppage time, but not including extra time or penalty kicks. A 'Yes' outcome for Croatia, Iceland, or Tie occurs if the respective team wins or the match ends level at the end of regulation time. If the match is cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve at a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often differ from traditional sportsbook odds due to the nature of how they are determined. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own analysis and incorporate a profit margin, while this market relies on the collective wisdom of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when public sentiment strongly diverges from the sportsbook’s initial assessment. Furthermore, prediction markets allow for more granular outcomes and hedging strategies not typically available at sportsbooks. The efficiency of this market can sometimes result in more accurate probabilities as the event approaches.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Polymarket and Kalshi for the Croatia vs. Iceland match can arise due to several factors. Different user bases, varying liquidity, and distinct market-making strategies contribute to these divergences. Polymarket might attract a different class of traders with unique information or risk preferences compared to Kalshi. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform—currently $1,872,252 overall—influences price discovery. These factors can lead to temporary mispricings, creating opportunities for arbitrage until the markets converge or reflect differing perspectives on the event’s outcome.