TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 3:54 PM EST
Polymarket
In the upcoming match between Croatia and England, scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Croatia" if Croatia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "England" if England are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
In the upcoming match between Croatia and England, scheduled for October 3, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Croatia" if Croatia are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. This market will resolve to "England" if England are the first to score within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. If neither team scores within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time, this market will resolve "Neither". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve to "Neither". This market refers only to the outcome within the first 90 minutes of regular play plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, data from Flashscore may be used; if Flashscore data is unavailable, data from Sofascore may be used; if neither is available, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome. If no acceptable data is available within 24 hours of the event's conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50, or to "Draw" where applicable.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often differing from initial sportsbook offerings. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and to balance action, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a particular outcome is more likely than sportsbooks suggest, the odds on Polymarket will shift accordingly. It's common to see prediction markets outperform traditional sportsbooks in accuracy, especially as the event draws closer and more information becomes available. This can be a useful comparison when assessing probabilities.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in each outcome. As more shares are traded, the price of each share adjusts to reflect the collective probability assigned by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. For example, a share priced at 30 means there is a 30% chance of that outcome being correct, according to the traders on Polymarket.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which team scores the first goal in the Croatia vs. England match. If neither team scores, that outcome will be considered the result. The platform will verify the result against official match data to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their positions based on the final result.
Several factors could influence the price of shares in this market. Any news regarding player injuries or suspensions for either Croatia or England would likely cause shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in team formations or tactical approaches could also impact trader sentiment. Furthermore, pre-match analysis from respected football experts and any significant changes in public opinion could all contribute to movement in this market. The closer we get to Oct 3, 2026, the more sensitive the market will be to new information and evolving expectations.