TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 8:36 PM EST
Kalshi
Two Brazilian Serie B soccer teams, Criciuma and America FC, compete in a match where a win for either team after regular time determines the outcome. The result hinges solely on which team secures victory within the standard 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event determines the winner of the Criciuma vs America FC Brazilian Serie B soccer match scheduled for October 12, 2026. A market resolves to Yes if the specified team wins after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the match ends in a tie, a separate 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the game be cancelled or rescheduled beyond 48 hours, markets resolve to a fair price. The rules explicitly exclude extra time and penalty shootouts from determining outcomes.
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market aggregates the collective intelligence of many individual traders. This can lead to differences in probabilities, especially when there's strong public sentiment or information not fully priced into sportsbook lines. Typically, you'll find that prediction markets are more sensitive to new information and can adjust more quickly than traditional sportsbooks, though discrepancies can occur based on differing assumptions and risk assessments.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s current expectation of that outcome’s probability. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective belief. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as they profit if their predictions are correct and lose if they are wrong. This dynamic creates a mechanism for efficiently discovering and reflecting information in the market price.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Criciuma vs America FC match. The platform will verify the result against trusted sources to determine which outcome corresponds to the actual event. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their stake. It’s important to monitor updates as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or even weather conditions could shift trader sentiment. Unexpected lineup announcements or reports of player conflicts could also have a significant impact. Furthermore, public perception and media coverage surrounding the teams’ performance can influence trading activity. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on the match outcome is crucial for informed trading in this market.