TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 18, 5:10 PM EST
Kalshi
Two Brazilian soccer teams compete in a high-stakes match where the outcome depends on the margin of victory. Bettors can speculate on whether one team will dominate by a specific number of goals, reflecting potential performance disparities.
All markets resolve based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. A 'Yes' outcome occurs only if the stated team wins by the exact margin specified in each market—more than 2.5 or more than 1.5 goals—with no affiliation between Kalshi and the governing league, and all trademarks remaining property of their respective owners.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, incorporating a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own information and beliefs. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can drive the price on Kalshi in a different direction, potentially offering a more accurate assessment of the likely outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the event's outcome. The price of a contract represents the probability of that outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived chance. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. This creates a real-time assessment of probabilities based on collective intelligence.
This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final result of the CR Brasil vs Botafogo match, specifically the spread as determined by official sources. Traders holding contracts on the winning side will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on the losing side will not. The exact payout amount will depend on the final price of the contract at resolution.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 18, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions or controversies surrounding the match could also play a role. Furthermore, significant betting activity or large trades on Kalshi could indicate new information or a change in sentiment, causing the price to move. Monitoring these signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market’s assessment of the likely outcome.