TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 5:02 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of an English Premier League soccer match between Coventry and Newcastle, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It evaluates whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The result is determined solely by the final score after regular time, excluding any extra time or penalty shootouts.
The event evaluates four distinct outcome scenarios for the Coventry vs Newcastle EPL match scheduled for October 12, 2026. Each scenario resolves to 'Yes' if the specified team wins by a particular goal margin—either Coventry by more than 2.5 goals, Coventry by more than 1.5 goals, Newcastle by more than 1.5 goals, or Newcastle by more than 2.5 goals—all assessed after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no consideration for extra time or penalties. The market resolves based on the final score alone, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of related trademarks and branding.
Prediction market odds often differ from those found at traditional sportsbooks due to the wisdom of the crowd effect. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert opinions, whereas this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. If a significant number of traders believe a sportsbook’s line is inaccurate, they can drive the price on Kalshi in a different direction. This can lead to prediction markets offering potentially more accurate probabilities, especially as the event approaches and more information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where buyers and sellers set the price based on their expectations. Traders are essentially betting on whether the actual spread will be above or below the price currently displayed on the exchange. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the collective assessment of all participants, and changes dynamically as new information emerges and traders adjust their positions. The spread is currently priced to reflect the probability of different outcomes, with higher prices indicating a lower probability of that outcome occurring.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final spread will be determined by the official result of the Coventry vs Newcastle match, as reported by a recognized sports data provider. Traders holding positions in this market will then be paid out or have their positions closed based on whether the actual spread aligns with their predictions. The resolution process ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 13, 2026. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either Coventry or Newcastle could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team form, tactical adjustments announced by the managers, or even weather forecasts impacting playing conditions could all contribute to price movements. Unexpected news or events affecting team morale or player availability are also likely to cause fluctuations in trading volume and price on Kalshi.