TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 2:20 PM EST
Polymarket
This market tracks whether Astralis will win Map 2 with a handicap of -3.5 rounds against fnatic in their best-of-three Counter-Strike match within the Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs. Currently, Polymarket assigns a 100.0% probability to Astralis (-3.5) winning Map 2 rounds against fnatic (+3.5). Resolution will be based on the results reported at https://hltv.org. Keep an eye on the initial match schedule for October 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET, as the start of the match will confirm the beginning of the betting window for this market.
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 1 match between Astralis and fnatic in the Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs, initially scheduled for October 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win the match against fnatic. This market will resolve to "fnatic" if fnatic win the match against Astralis. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or ends in a tie, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match is postponed, it must be rescheduled to a start time on or before November 10, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET (14 calendar days after the originally scheduled start of October 27, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET). If, by that deadline, the most recently announced rescheduled start time is on or before the deadline, this market resolves based on the result of the match as played. Otherwise, this market resolves 50-50, regardless of whether the match is subsequently played. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from those offered by traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market aims to represent the true probability of an outcome as assessed by traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the likelihood of either Astralis or fnatic winning. It’s a useful comparison point for informed bettors.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment. This allows for a dynamic and responsive valuation of the Astralis vs fnatic match, based solely on the expectations of those trading within the market.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official result of the best-of-three series between Astralis and fnatic in the Stake Ranked Episode 5 Playoffs. The winning team, as determined by the tournament organizers and reported by reputable esports news sources, will dictate the settlement of this market. Any disputes will be resolved using publicly available information and official tournament results.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market before Oct 27, 2026. Unexpected news regarding player form, injuries, or team strategies could all shift expectations. Major upsets in other matches within the playoffs could also impact perceived team strengths. In-game performance during the series itself, such as map picks and early round scores, will undoubtedly cause significant price fluctuations. Any significant information relating to the Astralis or fnatic rosters or their preparation will likely move this market.