TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 10:58 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Correcaminos and Dorados, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on how many goals separate the winning team from the losing team at the end of regular time. Different thresholds define whether the event is considered a success for Correcaminos or Dorados.
The event resolves based on the goal differential between Correcaminos and Dorados in their scheduled Liga de Expansion MX soccer match on October 16, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalty kicks. If Correcaminos wins by more than 2.5 goals, that outcome settles the first market as Yes. If Correcaminos wins by more than 1.5 but not more than 2.5 goals, that settles the second market as Yes. Conversely, if Dorados wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes. And if Dorados wins by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets share the same match condition and time frame, and Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league or ownership of related trademarks.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market aggregates the views of many individual traders. If a significant discrepancy exists between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds, it may indicate that the market believes the sportsbook has mispriced the event. However, it's important to remember that both represent probabilities, and neither is guaranteed to be accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about the final spread of the Correcaminos vs Dorados game. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that spread occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating the market's direction. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the likely outcome. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a highly informative and efficient market.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Correcaminos vs Dorados game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the governing body of the league, and will reflect the actual difference in scores between the two teams at the end of regulation play. Any overtime periods will be included in determining the final spread. The market will then settle based on whether the actual spread falls above or below the contract price.
Several factors could influence the price of this market leading up to Oct 17, 2026. News regarding key player injuries or suspensions for either the Correcaminos or Dorados could significantly shift expectations. Changes in team performance, coaching strategies, or even weather conditions could also impact trader sentiment. Unexpected announcements about the game's location or time could also play a role. Finally, large trading volume from informed participants could indicate a shift in market belief and cause the price to move rapidly.