TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 5:08 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the outcome of a professional soccer match between Coritiba and Botafogo, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. The result depends on whether the winning team achieves a specified goal differential threshold. The match is part of the Brasileiro Serie A league and follows standard timing rules for soccer games.
The event evaluates different goal-differential thresholds for determining a winning outcome in the Coritiba vs Botafogo match scheduled for October 12, 2026. Four distinct primary rules assess varying margins of victory: Coritiba winning by more than 2.5 goals, Coritiba winning by more than 1.5 goals, Botafogo winning by more than 1.5 goals, and Botafogo winning by more than 2.5 goals. All resolutions are based solely on the final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, explicitly excluding extra time or penalty shootouts. The event operates independently of official league affiliations, and all trademarks referenced belong to their respective owners. The outcome is determined by which, if any, of these margin-based conditions are met.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from sportsbook odds which can be influenced by factors like house biases or initial public perception. Sportsbooks often set lines to balance betting action, while this market allows traders to directly express their beliefs about the outcome. Significant discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and sportsbook odds can sometimes indicate opportunities for arbitrage, though it’s important to consider transaction costs and market liquidity when evaluating such strategies. It's common to see this market adjust more dynamically to new information than traditional betting venues.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy into a particular outcome, its price increases, and the implied probability rises. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market depth, indicated by the bid-ask spread, shows how readily traders can execute orders at different price points. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to efficiently incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches.
This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the result of the Coritiba vs Botafogo match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final score of the game, determining the winning team and the margin of victory. The platform will utilize publicly available data to verify the result and settle all outstanding contracts. Traders should ensure they understand the event details and potential sources of information that will be used for resolution before participating in this market.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team lineups, or tactical adjustments could shift expectations. Unexpected weather conditions at the match location might also play a role. Furthermore, significant shifts in public opinion, reflected in polls or expert analyses, could impact trading activity. Even late-breaking news about team morale or coaching decisions could cause the market to react. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for traders looking to capitalize on potential opportunities before Oct 12, 2026.