TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.5b
24H VOL:
$262,573,226
24H TRANSACTIONS:
951,878,243
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,187,805,448
831,787
Markets across
15,132
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
964
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Confirmed US Screwworm case in Livestock beyond Texas by December 31?
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a case of Screwworm in any livestock animal in a state of the United States other than Texas confirmed between market creation and the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed screwworm infection identified within a U.S. state other than Texas will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC or USDA); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that adjusts odds continuously as traders buy and sell shares representing yes or no outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the collective probability estimate; higher prices indicate stronger trader belief in that scenario. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to new information about disease detection or containment efforts.
USDA surveillance reports, laboratory confirmations of screwworm in new geographic areas, and livestock disease alerts will drive sharp price movements. Detection in border states or major ranching regions could spike odds significantly. Conversely, successful eradication efforts, quarantine enforcement, or extended periods without new cases may lower prices. Media coverage of agricultural biosecurity measures and international trade restrictions on US livestock also influence trader positioning and volatility.
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