TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 10:40 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets track the potential margin of victory in an upcoming college football game, allowing participants to speculate on how decisively either team might win. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that determines the outcome.
All markets resolve based on the official final point differential of the Columbia vs Marist college football game scheduled for October 9, 2026. If Marist wins by exceeding the specified point margin defined in each market, that market resolves to Yes; if Columbia wins by exceeding its defined margin, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of the original start time, all markets remain active and resolve according to the final result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment for all participants regardless of the specific point differential thresholds.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can sometimes differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set their lines based on their own models and risk management, while this market is driven by individuals trading based on their own analysis and information. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook lines, it could indicate that the crowd believes the sportsbook is mispricing the game. However, sportsbook odds often incorporate limitations like vigorish, which isn't present in the same way on Kalshi.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Columbia vs Marist game. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that spread being the final result. As more traders buy contracts for a particular spread, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts as new information becomes available and traders update their beliefs about the game's outcome, creating a real-time assessment of the likely spread.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Columbia vs Marist game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the governing body of college football. Contracts will pay out $1 per share for the winning spread, and $0 for all others. Traders should monitor official sources for the final score to understand when and how this market settles, as the platform relies on publicly available information to determine the result.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market before Oct 10, 2026. News regarding injuries to key players on either the Columbia or Marist teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if severe weather is expected, could also shift the market. Additionally, any late-breaking news about team strategies, coaching decisions, or even public sentiment could cause traders to adjust their positions, leading to price fluctuations. Monitoring these types of signals can help you understand potential shifts in the market.