TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 11:42 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the Colorado vs San Jose professional MLS soccer game, scheduled for October 10, 2026, will end in a tie after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Currently, Kalshi gives a 95.0% probability to “Tie is the result”, with a 4.0% probability assigned to “San Jose wins”. The market will be resolved based on the outcome of this game as reported by the official result. Keep an eye on the match itself on October 10, 2026, as the final score will determine the resolution of this market.
The markets resolve based on the result of the Colorado vs San Jose professional MLS soccer game scheduled for October 10, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time or penalties. A 'Yes' outcome for the Colorado market occurs if Colorado wins the match in regular time. Similarly, a 'Yes' for San Jose occurs if San Jose secures a victory within the same timeframe. If the game concludes in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to 'Yes.' Should the match be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as determined by the platform’s rules. The markets exclusively consider the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, with no account for extended play or penalty determinations.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on their own analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides and ensure profitability. However, this market allows a broader range of participants to express their beliefs, potentially leading to odds that more accurately forecast the actual outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the collective intelligence of the prediction market participants. It’s common to see prediction markets move independently of sportsbook lines as new information becomes available.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, signifying a higher perceived chance of success. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders can earn money based on the difference between their buy and sell prices. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and efficient representation of the event's likelihood, based on the collective knowledge of the participants.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Colorado vs San Jose match, as reported by recognized sports authorities. The platform will verify the final score or result against these sources to determine the winning outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct outcome will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment. The resolution process is designed to be transparent and objective, ensuring a fair outcome for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price movement of this market leading up to Oct 11, 2026. Any news regarding player injuries, changes in team strategy, or unexpected developments affecting either Colorado or San Jose could significantly shift market sentiment. Major announcements about weather conditions, or even public endorsements from analysts, could also play a role. Furthermore, large trading volume from informed participants can sometimes indicate inside information or a strong conviction about the likely outcome, causing prices to fluctuate rapidly. Monitoring these signals can help you understand the evolving dynamics of this market.