TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.7b
24H VOL:
$279,496,801
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,923,931,766
416,910
Markets across
40,107
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,571
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 9:45 PM EST
Kalshi
This market assesses the outcome of an NHL game between Colorado and Philadelphia, focusing on the margin of victory for either team. It determines whether the winning team achieves a decisive lead, measured by specific goal differentials. The resolution hinges on the official game result, accounting for potential schedule adjustments.
The event consists of four markets, each evaluating different goal-differential thresholds for either Colorado or Philadelphia to win by. If Philadelphia wins by more than 2.5 goals, the first market resolves to Yes; if they win by more than 1.5 goals, the second market resolves to Yes. Conversely, if Colorado wins by more than 1.5 goals, the third market resolves to Yes, and if they win by more than 2.5 goals, the fourth market resolves to Yes. All markets share a common secondary rule: if the game is postponed but starts within 48 hours of the original time, they remain open and resolve based on the final result. If the game is cancelled or does not start within this window, all markets resolve to a fair price, ensuring equitable treatment under unforeseen circumstances.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often providing a more accurate forecast than traditional sportsbook odds, particularly as the event approaches. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while this market allows traders to directly assess probabilities. However, initial odds on Kalshi may differ from those found at sportsbooks due to varying levels of information and differing participant motivations. It's important to remember that both represent probabilities, but are derived through different mechanisms and may appeal to different types of bettors.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the Colorado vs Philadelphia game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to incorporate new information and perspectives. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movement is driven by supply and demand; if more people believe a particular spread is likely, the price of contracts representing that spread will increase, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to create a real-time assessment of the game’s potential outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 20, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread of the Colorado vs Philadelphia game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result declared by the relevant sporting authority. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct spread will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect spreads will forfeit their investment. The market's resolution is designed to be objective and based on publicly available data, ensuring a fair and transparent outcome for all participants.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before it resolves. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Colorado or Philadelphia teams would likely cause significant movement. Changes in team strategy, weather forecasts for the game day, and even public sentiment expressed through polls or media coverage could all impact trader behavior. Unexpected announcements about coaching decisions or player availability are also potential catalysts. Monitoring these signals and assessing their potential impact on the game’s outcome is crucial for informed trading in this market.