TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.2b
24H VOL:
$203,036,808
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,857,846,526
408,774
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,373
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 11:40 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether Chicago Fire will win its professional MLS soccer game against Colorado. Currently, Kalshi gives Chicago Fire a 99.0% probability of winning, while Colorado has a 1.0% probability. The market resolves based on the outcome of the game after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, as determined by the official result reported for the Colorado vs Chicago Fire match originally scheduled for Oct 31, 2026. Keep an eye on the match itself, as the final result will determine resolution on or around November 1, 2026, the estimated resolution date.
The event covers three possible outcomes of the Colorado vs Chicago Fire professional MLS soccer match scheduled for October 31, 2026: a win for Colorado, a win for Chicago Fire, or a tie, all determined after 90 minutes of play plus any stoppage time, but not including extra time or penalty kicks. Each market corresponds to one of these outcomes. If the game ends in a tie after regular time, the 'Tie' market resolves to Yes. Should the match be cancelled or rescheduled to more than 48 hours beyond the original date, all markets will resolve to a fair price as per the event rules. The governing body is Major League Soccer, and Kalshi explicitly states it is not affiliated with or connected to the league in any official capacity. All trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect a wisdom-of-the-crowd perspective, often differing from initial sportsbook lines. Sportsbooks set odds based on their own models and incorporate a profit margin, while this market is driven purely by traders expressing their beliefs. As more information becomes available – such as team news or weather forecasts – the odds on Kalshi can move independently of sportsbook adjustments. This can sometimes lead to opportunities for informed traders to find value discrepancies, though it's not guaranteed.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable traders are rewarded and those with inaccurate views risk losing capital. This dynamic pricing mechanism aims to converge towards a fair and efficient assessment of the event’s likelihood.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result of the Colorado vs Chicago Fire match as reported by official sources. Traders holding contracts on the winning outcome will be paid out, while those holding contracts on losing outcomes will forfeit their investment. The precise details of the outcome determination are based on standard sporting event reporting procedures.
Several factors could influence this market before Nov 1, 2026. Key player injuries or suspensions for either the Colorado Rapids or Chicago Fire would likely cause significant shifts in the odds. Unexpected changes in team form, such as a surprising win or loss in a preceding match, could also impact trader sentiment. Even external factors like adverse weather conditions predicted for the match day have the potential to move the market, as they could affect playing style and overall game dynamics.