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404,136
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 15, 11:35 PM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks which team will score more points in the final quarter of an upcoming college football game between Colorado State and Texas State. It focuses solely on the performance during the fourth quarter, ignoring the overall game result or any overtime periods. The outcome depends exclusively on who holds the scoring advantage in that specific segment of play.
The market resolves based on which team scores more points during the fourth quarter of the Colorado State versus Texas State college football game scheduled for October 15, 2026, excluding any overtime periods. If Texas State scores more points in the fourth quarter, its corresponding market resolves to Yes. If Colorado State scores more points in the same quarter, its market resolves to Yes. If both teams score an equal number of points during the fourth quarter, the tie market resolves to Yes. Should the game be postponed but commence within 48 hours of its original scheduled start time, all markets remain open and resolve according to the official result. If the game fails to start within this 48-hour window, all markets will resolve to a fair price. Only points scored during the fourth quarter—excluding overtime—are considered for resolution purposes.
Prediction market odds often reflect the wisdom of the crowd, potentially differing from those set by sportsbooks. Sportsbooks establish initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, aiming to balance action on both sides. This market, however, allows individuals to trade based on their own insights, leading to odds that can diverge from sportsbook lines as new information emerges or public opinion shifts. It’s common to see prediction markets react more quickly to breaking news or late-developing trends than traditional sportsbooks.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book, where traders buy and sell contracts representing each possible outcome. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. As more traders buy contracts for a particular outcome, its price increases, while selling pressure lowers the price. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market dynamically adjusts to reflect the collective beliefs of those trading, creating a real-time forecast of the 4th quarter winner.
This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on which team is leading at the end of the 4th quarter of the Colorado St. vs Texas St. game. The final score will be verified against official game statistics and reporting to determine the winning team for the purposes of this market. Traders will then be paid out based on the final outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before resolution. Any news regarding injuries to key players on either the Colorado St. or Texas St. teams would likely have a significant impact. Changes in team strategy, weather conditions affecting gameplay, or even significant shifts in public sentiment could all cause the odds to move. Unexpected in-game performance during earlier quarters could also lead traders to adjust their positions, influencing the price of contracts for the 4th quarter winner.