TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 1:27 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Arizona will appear in the top 25 of the Associated Press Men's College Basketball Poll for Week 1 of the 2026 season. The leading outcome currently stands at 99.0% probability. Resolution is determined by the official AP Poll Week 1 rankings as released by the Associated Press. Watch for the preseason poll announcement scheduled around mid-December 2026, which will definitively settle whether Arizona earns a top 25 ranking to begin the season.
Kalshi
If Duke is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Arizona is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michigan is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Iowa St. is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Houston is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If UConn is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Arkansas is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Illinois is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michigan St. is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kansas is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Louisville is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tennessee is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Texas is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kentucky is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If North Carolina is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If St. John's is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gonzaga is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Indiana is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Texas Tech is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If USC is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alabama is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If BYU is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Purdue is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Virginia is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Auburn is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Missouri is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Miami (FL) is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Iowa is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vanderbilt is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wisconsin is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Providence is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Texas A&M is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Florida St. is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Marquette is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If San Diego St. is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Villanova is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Baylor is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Syracuse is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Ohio St. is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Oregon is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If North Carolina St. is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If SMU is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Clemson is ranked top 25 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Florida is ranked top 25 on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings for the season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction markets and sportsbooks often arrive at similar probabilities, but they do so through different mechanisms. Sportsbooks set odds based on their internal models and aim to balance action on both sides of a bet, while this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who are directly incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. Differences can emerge due to varying levels of information, biases, or simply differing opinions among bettors and traders. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially early in the market, as new information becomes available and opinions evolve.
This market resolves around Dec 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Week 1 AP Poll is released and is verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will reflect whether each team was included in the top 25 rankings as determined by the AP Poll. The AP Poll is released weekly during the college basketball season and is compiled from votes submitted by a panel of sports writers and broadcasters. The final rankings will be used to determine the settlement of contracts in this market.
Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the probabilities in this market. Preseason player announcements, such as key players declaring for the NBA draft or transferring to different schools, could significantly impact team expectations. Coaching changes, highly-rated recruits committing to programs, and early-season performance in exhibition games are also likely to move the market. Any news that alters perceptions of a team's potential success could lead to increased buying or selling pressure, ultimately influencing the prices and probabilities within this market.
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