TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 19, 1:25 PM EST
Kalshi
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether Illinois will appear in the top 10 of the Associated Press Men's College Basketball Poll for Week 1 of the 2026 season. The leading outcome currently stands at 98.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by the official AP Poll Week 1 rankings as released for the 2026 men's college basketball season. Watch for the AP's preseason poll announcement around mid-December 2026, which will definitively settle whether Illinois secures a top 10 ranking to begin the season.
Kalshi
If Duke is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Arizona is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michigan is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Iowa St. is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Houston is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If UConn is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Arkansas is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Illinois is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Michigan St. is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kansas is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Louisville is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tennessee is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Texas is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kentucky is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If North Carolina is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If St. John's is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Gonzaga is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Indiana is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Texas Tech is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If USC is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Alabama is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If BYU is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Purdue is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Virginia is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Auburn is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Missouri is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Miami (FL) is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Iowa is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Vanderbilt is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Wisconsin is ranked top 10 on the 2026 Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings, then the market resolves to Yes. If Florida is ranked top 10 on the Men's College Basketball AP Poll Week 1 Rankings for the season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often reflect a different kind of wisdom than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective forecast of informed traders. Generally, prediction markets tend to be more accurate than traditional betting markets, especially when forecasting events with a large amount of publicly available information. However, sportsbook odds can be useful for identifying potential value discrepancies, as they represent another perspective on the likelihood of various outcomes for the top 10 college basketball teams.
This market resolves around Dec 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the Week 1 AP Poll is officially released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The market will determine which teams are ranked within the top 10 according to the AP Poll at that time. The AP Poll is compiled from votes submitted by sports writers and broadcasters, and represents a widely recognized ranking of college basketball teams. The resolution will be based on the official rankings published by the AP, and any ties in ranking will be considered as specified in the market’s rules.
Several factors could influence the market for the top 10 college basketball teams. Preseason performance in exhibition games, significant player injuries, and coaching changes could all shift perceptions of a team’s potential. News regarding player eligibility, academic standing, or off-court issues can also have a substantial impact. Major upsets in early-season tournaments or unexpected results in key matchups could also cause significant price movements. Any information that alters the perceived strength of a team will likely be reflected in the trading activity on Kalshi.
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