TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 5:54 PM EST
Kalshi
Two Paraguayan soccer teams, Club Guarani and San Lorenzo, will compete in a match where the winner after 90 minutes plus stoppage time determines the outcome. If neither team wins within regulation time, the match ends in a tie.
The market resolves based on the result of the Club Guarani vs San Lorenzo professional APF Division de Honor soccer game scheduled for Oct 3, 2026, after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Club Guarani wins, its market resolves to Yes. If San Lorenzo wins, its market resolves to Yes. If the game ends in a tie, the Tie market resolves to Yes. If the game is cancelled or rescheduled to over 48 hours away from the original date, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are incentivized to accurately forecast the outcome. If there’s a significant difference, it could indicate that PredictionHero users believe the sportsbook is mispricing the event, or that they have access to information not yet reflected in sportsbook odds. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly before a significant amount of trading occurs.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's current assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust to reflect the evolving consensus. The market depth shows the volume of buy and sell orders at various price points, indicating the strength of conviction among traders.
This market resolves around Oct 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result of the Club Guarani vs San Lorenzo match will be used to determine which contracts pay out. Resolution will be based on the official result as reported by a recognized sports data provider, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for all participants in this market. The platform will then distribute payouts to those who correctly predicted the result.
Several factors could influence trading activity in this market. Any news regarding team injuries, changes in coaching staff, or unexpected player suspensions could significantly shift the odds. Also, pre-match analysis from sports analysts, weather forecasts, and even public sentiment expressed on social media can all impact trader behavior. Major shifts in betting volume, particularly close to the match date, will also be a key signal to watch, as these indicate strong conviction about a particular outcome.