TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 8:22 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the competitive intensity of an upcoming League of Legends match between Cloud9 and LYON, focusing on how many maps will be played during the game. The length of the match reflects the back-and-forth battle between the teams, with more maps indicating a closely contested and dynamic encounter. Outcomes depend on whether the match extends beyond certain map thresholds.
The event evaluates two separate conditions regarding the total number of maps played in the Cloud9 vs. LYON League of Legends match scheduled for October 3, 2026. The first condition resolves positively if more than 3.5 maps are played, effectively meaning four or more maps occur. The second condition requires more than 4.5 maps, meaning five or more maps must be played for a positive resolution. Both markets are independent, each with its own threshold for success, and neither resolution affects the other. The match must be the one originally scheduled for the specified date and time. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Kalshi allows traders to directly assess the probability of different outcomes. If a significant discrepancy exists between this market and sportsbook odds, it might indicate that prediction market traders have information or beliefs that are not yet reflected in the sportsbook's pricing. This can be due to specialized knowledge or a different assessment of team strengths and potential strategies.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts. The price of a contract represents the probability of a specific outcome – in this case, the total number of maps played. As more traders buy contracts predicting a certain outcome, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market efficiently aggregates the collective wisdom of participants, reflecting their expectations about the match’s length and the relative strengths of Cloud9 and LYON.
This market resolves around Oct 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of maps played in the Cloud9 versus LYON match is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the event organizer. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the actual total number of maps played will receive a payout of 100 cents per contract, while those holding contracts for incorrect outcomes will receive nothing.
Several factors could influence this market before resolution. Any news regarding player injuries or changes in team lineups for either Cloud9 or LYON would likely cause significant movement. Major strategic announcements from either team, or analysis suggesting a shift in their competitive approach, could also impact trading activity. Furthermore, the results of other recent matches played by these teams, and any publicly available information about their practice performance, could all contribute to price fluctuations in this market.