TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$290,393,159
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,944,100,805
420,493
Markets across
40,511
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of specific players in an upcoming football game between Cleveland and Tennessee. Participants can bet on how many rushing yards individual players will accumulate during the match. The payouts vary based on the actual yardage achieved, creating a dynamic way to engage with player performance.
The event consists of three separate scalar markets, each focusing on the rushing yards accumulated by a different player—Tony Pollard, Cam Ward, and Deshaun Watson—during the Cleveland vs Tennessee Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. For each market, Yes contracts pay $0.0025 per rushing yard recorded by the respective player, with payouts capped at $1.00 and limited to a maximum of 400 yards. The No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to the holder's position size, meaning that if a player records 80 rushing yards, the Yes contract pays $0.20 and the No contract pays $0.80; if a player records 200 rushing yards, both Yes and No contracts pay $0.50 each; and if a player records zero rushing yards, the Yes contract pays $0.00 and the No contract pays $1.00. Each market resolves to Yes if the specified conditions are met, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NFL, noting that all trademarks and brand names belong to their respective owners.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially in the lead-up to an event. Sportsbooks often incorporate a 'vig' or commission into their odds, while Kalshi allows traders to directly set prices based on their own assessments. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities as perceived by different groups – bettors in the case of sportsbooks, and traders on Kalshi in this case. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information or biases within each group.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different rushing yard totals for the Browns and Titans. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy contracts predicting a higher rushing yard total, the price for those contracts increases, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time, offering a unique perspective on the potential game outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for both the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans are verifiable from credible public reporting following the completion of their game. The final rushing yard count, as reported by official league sources, will determine whether contracts predicting over or under specific yardage thresholds will pay out. The resolution process is designed to be objective and based on publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and reliable outcome for all traders.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would changes in weather forecasts predicting rain or snow, which could impact the running game. News regarding offensive line changes or defensive strategies focused on stopping the run could also shift prices. Finally, any late-breaking information about player matchups or coaching decisions could lead to increased trading activity and price movements in this market as traders react to the latest developments.