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417,059
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Kalshi:
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Closed: Oct 25, 4:22 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on whether Tony Pollard will achieve specific rushing yard thresholds in a football game between Cleveland and Tennessee. The outcomes depend entirely on Pollard's performance during the match, with varying levels of difficulty for each threshold.
Each market resolves based on whether Tony Pollard achieves a specified rushing yard threshold (ranging from 40+ to 140+) in the full game, including overtime. All contracts are designated as protected: if Pollard participates in at least one play during the first half but none after halftime, the contract resolves to the pre-game fair price unless the threshold is met, in which case it settles based on actual statistics. If Pollard participates in any play after halftime, the contract settles based on actual statistics regardless of first-half involvement. Participation in a play nullified by penalty does not count, and a player who never participates is subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion.
Prediction market odds often reflect the collective wisdom of a diverse group of traders, potentially offering a different perspective than traditional sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and aim to balance action on both sides, while this market is driven by individuals willing to put their capital behind their beliefs. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially before significant news breaks or as public opinion shifts. Comparing the two can reveal where the crowd diverges from expert analysis, offering insights into potential value in either market.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the prices by submitting bids and asks. The current price represents the probability of a particular rushing yard total occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price movements are influenced by factors like injury reports, weather forecasts, and expert analysis, all of which contribute to traders’ assessments of the likely outcome. The market dynamically adjusts to new information as it becomes available.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official rushing yard totals for both the Cleveland Browns and the Tennessee Titans are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final result will be based on the official game statistics released by the NFL. Traders will be able to see the final outcome reflected in their account balances shortly after the official statistics are published. This allows for a transparent and verifiable resolution process.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key running backs on either team would be a major catalyst, as would any changes to the teams’ offensive game plans. Unexpected weather conditions, such as heavy rain or snow, could also influence the rushing attack. Significant news regarding the opposing defenses, like a key defensive tackle being ruled out, could also shift the market. Finally, any late-breaking analysis from respected NFL analysts could sway trader sentiment and drive price movements.