TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:34 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks receiving yard performance for specific players in an upcoming NFL game between Cleveland and Tennessee. Participants can bet on whether each player will exceed a certain yardage threshold, with payouts scaling based on actual yards achieved. The structure allows for varied outcomes depending on individual player performance during the match.
The event consists of three separate scalar markets, each tied to a different player’s receiving yards in the Cleveland vs Tennessee NFL game scheduled for October 25, 2026. For each market, Yes contracts pay $0.0025 per receiving yard accumulated by the specified player, capped at $1.00 (equivalent to 400 yards). No contracts pay $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Payouts are proportional to the holder’s position size and constrained between $0.00 and $1.00. For instance, if a player records 80 receiving yards, the Yes payout would be $0.20 and the No payout $0.80; 200 yards would result in a $0.50 payout for both Yes and No. If the player records zero yards, Yes pays $0.00 and No pays $1.00. All markets resolve based solely on official game statistics, and Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with the NFL.
Generally, prediction market odds tend to reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often proving more accurate than traditional sportsbook odds, especially in the lead-up to an event. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for profit margins, while this market aggregates the beliefs of many individual traders. However, sportsbook odds can sometimes move faster to react to breaking news, while this market’s price movements depend on trading activity. It’s common to see differences in implied probabilities between the two.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different receiving yard totals. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring. As more people buy contracts predicting a specific yardage range, the price increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations as the event approaches. Traders are essentially betting against each other, creating a decentralized forecast.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official receiving yardage statistics from the game are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final receiving yardage totals for each relevant player will be used to determine which contracts pay out. The market will settle based on the official statistics published by the NFL, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct receiving yardage range will receive a payout.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Injury reports for key wide receivers and tight ends on both the Browns and Titans would be major catalysts, as would any changes to the projected weather conditions for the game. Unexpected news regarding quarterback performance or play-calling tendencies could also shift expectations. Finally, any late-breaking news about player matchups or defensive schemes could influence trading activity and move the price of contracts in this market.