TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 2:17 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of quarterbacks in a specific football game, focusing on how often their passes are intercepted by the opposing team. It allows participants to speculate on whether certain players will have multiple turnovers through interceptions during the match.
The official rules for this event govern markets centered on passing interceptions for Cam Ward and Deshaun Watson in the Cleveland vs Tennessee Pro Football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the specified quarterback records the designated number of passing interceptions (1+, 2+, or 3+) during the game. A key secondary rule states that if either quarterback is active but never takes a snap, the market settles to the fair market price before the game starts. However, once a quarterback takes at least one snap—even if that play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based solely on the actual number of passing interceptions recorded during the game. These provisions ensure clarity and fairness in resolving outcomes, particularly in scenarios where a quarterback's participation is limited or disrupted.
Often, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than those found at sportsbooks. Sportsbooks set lines to balance action and incorporate a profit margin, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders predicting the likely outcome. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information sources, biases, or simply varying interpretations of the teams' capabilities. If you find a significant difference between the implied probability in this market and sportsbook odds, it could indicate an opportunity for informed trading, or a disagreement between the crowd and professional oddsmakers.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the total number of interceptions. The price of each contract fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving expectations of market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe a certain number of interceptions is likely, the price of contracts corresponding to that outcome will increase. Conversely, if sentiment shifts, the price will decrease, creating opportunities for traders to profit from correctly anticipating the event's outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final number of passing interceptions thrown during the Cleveland versus Tennessee game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official game statistics, ensuring an objective and accurate determination of the result. Traders holding contracts corresponding to the correct number of interceptions will receive a payout, while those holding contracts on incorrect outcomes will forfeit their investment. The market's final price will reflect the actual event outcome.
Several factors could influence the price of contracts in this market leading up to the game. News regarding the quarterbacks’ health, such as injuries or illness, would be a significant catalyst. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly conditions favoring a passing or running game, could also shift expectations. Unexpected announcements about defensive strategies or key player matchups could further impact trading activity. Finally, any late-breaking news regarding team morale or coaching decisions could also contribute to price movements in this market.