TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 4:11 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting the margin of victory for either Cleveland or Tennessee in the second half of their football game, including any overtime periods. Each market corresponds to a specific point differential threshold that must be exceeded for the outcome to be considered valid.
The markets resolve based on the point differential by which either Cleveland or Tennessee wins during the second half of the game, including any overtime periods. Each market has a specific threshold that must be exceeded for a 'Yes' resolution. For Cleveland to win by more than 10.5, 9.5, 7.5, 6.5, 4.5, 3.5, or 2.5 points, or for Tennessee to win by more than 2.5, 3.5, 4.5, 6.5, 7.5, 9.5, or 10.5 points during the second half (including overtime), the respective market resolves to 'Yes.' Only points scored in the second half and any overtime periods count toward these thresholds. The markets are independent, and each threshold represents a distinct outcome.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd, often aligning closely with sportsbook odds but sometimes diverging based on unique information or perspectives held by traders. Sportsbooks set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, while this market allows individuals to express their own beliefs and potentially identify mispricings. Any differences between prediction market prices and sportsbook odds can present opportunities for arbitrage, as traders attempt to profit from discrepancies. However, it’s important to remember that both represent probabilities of an outcome, and neither guarantees accuracy.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different point spreads for the second half of the game. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective belief about the probability of that spread occurring. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect new information and sentiment. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The contracts are priced between 0 and 100, where a price of 50 represents a 50% probability, and prices above or below 50 indicate a higher or lower perceived likelihood of the spread being correct.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the final point spread for the second half of the Cleveland vs Tennessee game is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official result reported by the league, and contracts will pay out based on whether the actual spread falls within the range represented by the purchased contract. The specific payout will depend on the final spread and the contract price at the time of purchase, but all outcomes will be determined by the official game result.
Several factors could influence the price of this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any significant news regarding player injuries to key offensive or defensive players on either the Browns or the Titans would likely cause movement. Changes in weather forecasts, particularly if they suggest adverse conditions, could also impact the spread. Additionally, late-breaking news about coaching strategies or team morale, or even large trading volume from informed participants, could shift the market. Unexpected developments during the first half of the game itself, while not directly reflected in this second-half market, could influence trader sentiment.