TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 1:31 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks which team’s defense will score the first touchdown in an upcoming professional football game. It includes scenarios where either defense scores first or if no touchdown is scored by either team’s offense during the game.
The event determines whether the Cleveland Browns defense, the Tennessee Titans defense, or neither scores the first touchdown in the professional football game scheduled for October 25, 2026. If either defense scores the first touchdown of the game, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no touchdowns are scored by either offense throughout the game, the No Touchdown market resolves to Yes, and all other markets resolve to No. Special rules clarify that markets settle based on actual defensive touchdowns, excluding those scored on fake punts or offensive field goals. If a defensive unit is active but never takes a snap, the market settles at the fair pre-game price. Once a snap occurs, settlement depends strictly on whether that defense scores the first touchdown.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks often set initial lines based on statistical models and expert analysis, but may also incorporate a profit margin. This market, however, is driven by individuals trading based on their own research and beliefs, potentially leading to odds that more accurately reflect the true probability of an event. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information, biases, or simply the dynamic nature of trading activity. It’s common to see prediction markets move faster than sportsbooks in response to new information.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes – in this case, each player having the potential to score the first touchdown, as well as 'No Touchdown'. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders buy a particular contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability. Conversely, selling pressure drives prices down. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of all participants.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which player officially scored the first touchdown in the Cleveland versus Tennessee game. The official game records will be used to verify the outcome. The resolution will be based on the official scoring plays as recorded by the league and reported by major sports news outlets. Any disputes will be settled based on the official game results.
Several signals could significantly move this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players for either team, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, such as heavy rain or strong winds, could also influence expectations about scoring opportunities. Pre-game reports about coaching strategies or potential matchups could also impact trading activity. Finally, any significant line movements in traditional sportsbooks could prompt traders to reassess their positions, leading to further price adjustments in this market.