TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 1:14 PM EST
Kalshi
These markets focus on predicting which player or defensive unit will score the first touchdown for the Tennessee team in an upcoming professional football game against Cleveland. Each market is tied to a specific player or the defensive unit, with outcomes determined by game events.
The markets resolve based on which specified player or the Tennessee defensive unit scores the first touchdown for Tennessee in the game scheduled for October 25, 2026. If the designated player or defensive unit scores the first touchdown, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. If no Tennessee touchdowns are scored, the 'No Touchdown' market resolves to Yes, and all player-specific markets resolve to No. For any player market, if the player is active but does not take a snap, the market settles at the fair market price before the game starts. Once a player takes at least one snap—even if the play is nullified by a penalty—the market settles based on whether that player scores the first touchdown. All markets are independent, and the 'No Touchdown' market acts as a catch-all if no touchdown is scored by Tennessee.
Typically, prediction market odds reflect the wisdom of the crowd and can differ from traditional sportsbook odds. Sportsbooks set lines based on their own models and need to account for a profit margin, while this market allows participants to directly express their beliefs about the probability of each outcome. If sportsbooks heavily favor one player to score first, you might see a different price structure here, potentially offering value for those who believe another player has a higher chance. It’s common to see discrepancies, especially as new information emerges closer to the game.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing each potential player to score first. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that player scoring the first touchdown, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders buy a contract, its price increases, indicating a higher perceived probability, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust probabilities in real-time.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will determine which player scored the first touchdown in the Cleveland versus Tennessee game. The outcome will be based on official game statistics and play-by-play data. Any disputes regarding the official scoring record will be resolved using publicly available information from trusted sports news sources and official league records.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any news regarding player injuries, particularly to key offensive players for either team, would likely cause shifts in the odds. Changes in weather forecasts, especially if they suggest a run-heavy or pass-heavy game, could also impact the probabilities. Additionally, late-breaking news about team strategies or player matchups could lead to adjustments in the market. Finally, general betting trends and large volume trades on Kalshi could also signal shifts in market sentiment.